It is that time of the week again when 'Orrible Punt sits down in the Planet Rugby hot-seat to give you his calls. Brace yourself for the Test finale.
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It was back in 2003 that England's "tribe of white orcs on steroids" last beat the All Blacks and an unused substitute on the hosts' bench that day in Wellington has exerted a huge influence in the fixture since. A certain Daniel William Carter has scored 167 points in 9 games against England, winning all of them. The ABs have won 16/21 games in England by an average score of 19-11 and in the 'Carter era', the score jumps to 33-13.
Ignoring the Fiji win, England have scored 13 tries in 10 games and conceded the same number with an average score of 18-18. They have scored 20+ points in just 3 of those 10 games. The visitors are unbeaten in 20 matches and won 12/13 games this year by an average of 34-12, scoring over 20 points in 12 of the games. They have crossed the line an impressive 47 times and conceded just 14 tries.
The handicap line is set at -15 for the All Blacks, and that will do for me. Ignore the stomach bug, the world champions have improved this year whereas England are an inexperienced (603 less caps in their matchday 23) work-in-progress, full of spirit but unlikely to accumulate the points required to threaten an upset. New Zealand are stealing more than the double the amount of line-outs they lose which will put Tom Youngs under pressure, and average double the number of offloads and broken tackles to England. The number of points they have scored on tour has declined per game (51,42,33) but they will be looking to end the year on a high and I think England will get a lesson in counter-attack execution.
Saturday will be the sixth time these nations have met since October 2011 and there is danger of it being rugby's version of 'Groundhog day' with recent scores of 25-16, 21-18, 24-18, 27-19, 25-23 and 20-19 - all to Australia. Wales may have won 8 of the opening 13 fixtures but from the 1990's onwards, the Wallabies have won 19/22 games by an average score of 30-15. They have led at half-time in 19/22 game too so the HT/FT of 2.25 appeals.
The last 6 games have seen an average score of 24-19 to Australia and they won all 6 by 1-10 points, which is available at 3.0. In those recent games, Wales have scored almost double the amount of points in the second-half and that's a trend they've had for the past few seasons. The average time of the first Welsh try against Australia has been around the 60th minute so keep an eye out for that market.
Mike Phillips said this week: "Welsh rugby's pretty crazy isn't it? It's like Eastenders or something". When you look at their Six Nations record, they have tended to slump straight after winning a Grand Slam, and there are current questions over several key positions. Both teams look for territory, possession and to occupy the opposition 22 but there is big difference in their kicking game. The Wallabies find touch often, while Wales like to keep the ball in play, possibly to limit the number of line-outs (unless it's the all-in 15 man variety).
The points line is -2 for Australia and despite it being their last game on tour (and Argentina against Ireland is fresh in the mind), I think that's the call. The Welsh will be scrapping for ranking points but the return of openside flanker David Pocock, lock Nathan Sharpe's farewell, the hosts' inability to win these games against Southern Hemisphere teams and the resilience in this Australian team all point to a close win for the Wallabies - again.
The last 8 England versus New Zealand games have produced 14 cards, while punters friend Wayne Barnes takes charge of the game in Cardiff. He has issued 27 cards in 15 Premiership games and at least 2 in each of the 5 games this year. A sin-bin in both matches is 2.25 and I will be hoping for some options for 2 cards in each game by Saturday.
A treble of NZ -15, Australia to win and Richie McCaw for IRB Player of the Year is 4.86 while the unlikelier occurrence of England winning and Owen Farrell collecting the gong is 238.0.
Carter has 4 tries in 9 games against England while Berrick Barnes has 2 in 7 when playing Wales - it's 22.0 that they both score. If you are feeling sentimental then Sharpe has 2 tries in 13 games against Wales and is 15.0 to sign off in style. A Nick Cummins / Israel Dagg first-scorer double is 132.0 while Quins, Saints, Australia all to win by 1-10 points and NZ by 11-20 is 84.0. Finally Australia to win by 1-5 points and New Zealand by 13+ is 9.18.
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Comments
Sincero says...
Lovely article. Good man. Seems about spot-on to me... here's hoping.
Posted 02:23 01st December 2012