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If Argentina beat New Zealand in Sunday's World Cup quarter-final in Auckland, I'll eat my favourite Pumas replica jersey.
I really love that jersey - complete with the ice cream and red wine stains picked up in Buenos Aires - but I couldn't be more confident that it'll see plenty more years service from it.
I'll admit it, I'm a Pumas fan. Much as I hate the way they play the game, I love what they represent in world rugby: the growing global appeal of the sport and the power of a never-say-die attitude. The fact that they have been punching above their weight for the last decade, is a tribute to the fighting spirit that makes this game great.
But they won't beat the All Blacks.
For all their tenacity, the Pumas simply do not have the necessary weapons to trouble the World Cup favourites - and favourites they remain, with or without Dan Carter.
While Argentina are a symbol of how far combativeness can get you, New Zealand are very much the benchmark by which all teams measure themselves. This generation is as good - if not better - than any other to come before them and their time to shine has come (for real this time).
Those who are suggesting that the loss of His Fly-halfness signalled the demised of the hosts' hopes are totally misguided. Sure Colin Slade is not DC, not by a long shot, but one man a team does not maketh.
The All Blacks have no weaknesses - at least none that Argentina have the resources to exploit. The Pumas' forward-oriented game, centred largely on kicking penalties and spoiling tactics, might be enough to trouble many teams - and it brought them within inches of beating England - but it won't be enough to stop Graham Henry's men in black.
Trying to contain the All Blacks simply won't get a positive result. In many pundits' opinion, only the Springboks can beat the hosts because they are the only team capable of putting them under sufficient pressure to force mistakes.
Los Pumas will be fired up like never before - what a sight it will be to behold - but all the passion in the world is no substitute for clinical execution.
To beat New Zealand you must score tries, because they sure as hell will. The All Blacks have touched down in each of their last 93 Test matches... so defending and kicking three-pointers is never going to be enough.
The pool stages won't offer much encouragement for the visitors, since Argentina were the only one of the eight quarter-finalists that failed to score 100 points in their opening four games.
Argentina have never beaten New Zealand. Granted, they came close in their last clash, but that was five years ago, in Argentina, and with arguably a stronger team - certainly a younger one.
The average age of the Pumas has been a concern for some time now and just how long they will be able to keep up with the pace at which the All Blacks play the game will ultimately determine the scoreline.
It'll be an emotional day for many members of the Argentina side as they play probably their last game for their country. An over abundance of emotion + a trouble-stirring front row = trouble?
Players to watch:
For New Zealand: An obvious choice here. Colin Slade has the biggest boots in world rugby to fill. Will he be up to the task? His back-line coach Wayne Smith said it best when he advised the 23-year-old not try imitate the great man, but to just be himself and back his own talent. Easier said than done with the world watching! Having an experienced head like Piri Weepu on his inside will certainly help. Slade has the skill set, we'll find out soon enough if he has the stomach for the big occasion.
For Argentina: In what is very likely to be his last game in the blue and white hoops, take your hat off for Mario Ledesma, one of the best hookers to have played the game, ever. Ledesma will equal the World Cup record for appearances by a hooker, playing his 18th match to draw level with former France stalwart Raphael Ibanez. At 38, Super Mario is a little past his prime but you couldn't ask for a bigger heart. After being the cornerstone of the Puma's immovable scrum for fifteen years, Ledesma will leave everything he has left on field on Sunday. Look out!
Head-to-head: Two true stars of the world game face-off as Ma'a Nonu and Felipe Contepomi do battle in midfield. Nonu made more clean breaks (13) than any other player in the pool stages and is sure test his opposite number's defence. But Contepomi has been around the block a few times and is a tough man to beat. Apart from playing an instrumental role in directing the Pumas' attack, he is their main source of points and needs just five points to overtake Puma great Hugo Porta as Argentina's all-time leading points-scorer.
Previous results:
2006: New Zealand won 25-19 in Buenos Aires
2004: New Zealand won 41-7 in Hamilton
2001: New Zealand won 24-20 in Buenos Aires
2001: New Zealand won 67-19 in Christchurch
1997: New Zealand won 62-10 in Hamilton
1997: New Zealand won 93-8 in Wellington
1991: New Zealand won 36-6 in Buenos Aires
1991: New Zealand won 28-14 in Buenos Aires
1989 New Zealand won 49-12 in Wellington
1989: New Zealand won 60 -9 in Dunedin
Prediction: This will be the second World Cup meeting between these sides: New Zealand won 46-15 in the pool stages of the 1987 tournament. Considering the massive progress Argentina have made since then, it's unlikely we'll see a similar margin but the result will stay the same. New Zealand by 20 points!
The teams:
New Zealand: 15 Mils Muliaina, 14 Cory Jane, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma'a Nonu, 11 Sonny Bill Williams, 10 Colin Slade, 9 Piri Weepu, 8 Kieran Read, 7 Richie McCaw (c), 6 Jerome Kaino, 5 Brad Thorn, 4 Samuel Whitelock, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Keven Mealamu, 1 Tony Woodcock.
Replacements: 16 Andrew Hore, 17 Ben Franks, 18 Ali Williams, 19 Victor Vito, 20 Jimmy Cowan, 21 Aaron Cruden, 22 Isaia Toeava.
Argentina: 15 Martín Rodríguez, 14 Gonzalo Camacho, 13 Marcelo Bosch, 12 Felipe Contepomi (capt), 11 Horacio Agulla, 10 Santiago Fernández, 9 Nicolás Vergallo, 8 Leonardo Senatore, 7 Juan Manuel Leguizamón, 6 Julio Farias Cabello, 5 Patricio Albacete, 4 Manuel Carizza, 3 Juan Figallo, 2 Mario Ledesma, 1 Rodrigo Roncero.
Replacements: 16 Agustín Creevy, 17 Martín Scelzo, 18 Marcos Ayerza, 19 Alejandro Campos, 20 Alfredo Lalanne, 21 Lucas Gonzalez Amorosino, 22 Juan Jose Imhoff.
Date: Sunday, October 9
Venue: Eden Park, Auckland
Kick-off: 20.30 (07.30 GMT)
Weather: Dry but cloudy, Daytime Max 16°, evening low 10°C
Referee: Nigel Owens
Assistant referees: Jonathan Kaplan, George Clancy
Television match official: Shaun Veldsman
By Ross Hastie
Comments
5Lock4ward says...
@Carpelone, Contempomi was born in Buenos Aires.
Posted 11:16 09th October 2011
KiwiKev says...
coco loco
Posted 03:54 09th October 2011
lostguy101 says...
@ trinats
Lol, "you're only as good as your last game". Aussie aren't unbeaten in this tournament silly. I do realise the AB's have recently lost to Aussie and SA, but that would be the fault of Mr Henry making too many key changes (which I disagreed with).
The All Blacks are the only team in RWC history to never lose a pool match. Be honest with yourself....even with a full-strength team....Aussie were never going to win this World Cup. SA by 4 :)
Posted 02:38 09th October 2011
manzikert says...
OK OK Guys, I only says two things, ONE: there is a first time for EVERYTHING in this world.
TWO: You´ll lost with the PUMAS!!!!!!
Posted 01:05 09th October 2011
sandal says...
I have seldom known New Zealand to be this complacent.
I see a giant banana skin lying in wait for them.
Posted 23:00 08th October 2011
kahui says...
* trinats - in that last allblack aus game, nz was without kaino, dagg, kahui, sbw and injuries 2 thomson and keiren reid
Posted 17:24 08th October 2011
Ramage says...
@rugby-phile The Argentinians would not be considered for a NZ Super team unless they are playing in an ITM NZ Provincial Team. The only players who qualify are those who play for Pacific Island Countries and play Provincial Rugby in NZ.
I dont expect Argentina to win but as always it is sport and that is why we play and follow the game. We must go out to win and now and again the upset is there but not on Sunday. The problem will be the following game against a fired up confident Bok side.
Posted 14:19 08th October 2011
coronach says...
trinats - next week maybe, the week after no, rugby's about my 4th sport, will be supporting Oz rider Casey Stoner at Moto GP in KL the day of the final (who planned that?) he can ideally wrap up the world champs with 2 races to spare.
Am unsure if he supports rugby though?
Posted 06:09 08th October 2011
coronach says...
trinuts; how very sporting of you. And it is sport.
Easy to say '2 out of 3' re Oz-NZ, but it is also '2 out of 10' (as in 'lost 8 out of 10'), - just as easy to forget that stat, and the margins for those 2 rare wins a massive all-conquering world-champions-in-waiting 2 and 5 points.
Don't get too carried away. I wouldn't with 4 from 21 since 2005, and so on.
Posted 03:18 08th October 2011
rugby_phile says...
@claudio. You might get some playing in NZ/SA but the Aussies (apart from the odd marquee player) don't allow players in their teams that couldn't potentially qualify for the Wallabies.
Posted 23:37 07th October 2011
rugby_phile says...
@sebbb - Money
Posted 23:31 07th October 2011
RealRugby says...
In 2007, dispite the general belief that the AB's would walk it, I went to Cardiff with a bit of doubt, and wasn't surprised by the result.
Sunday is a different story. Argentina don't have the team to beat the AB's - just hope it's not a whitewash!
Posted 23:21 07th October 2011
JayStarr says...
This is such a strange match-up... Can't remember when last I saw Argentina play the New Zealand! The All Blacks should win comfortably of course... but will they? Argentina and the unique challenge they bring is something very unfamiliar to the Kiwis... and GH and his troops tend to not like the unfamiliar. Especially if the opposition is tenacious - instead of basically giving up after the 2nd try against them...
There is the very real possibility that the All Blacks will do what the Springboks did to the Argentinians in 2007. But then there is also the possibility that the All Blacks could do what they did with France in 1999 - take their foot off the pedal...
I'm waiting for this one in anticipication :) I think we're at the very least going to see scenes of bravery from the men in blue, who start crying before the lyrics've even started in their national anthem (love it..! lol)
Posted 22:21 07th October 2011
coco says...
Looks like a few of you will start believing in miracles next Sunday. Welcome back to church!!!
Pumas by 1 (yes 01)
And Ross....I hope you find our pumas jersey tasty! Bon Appetit!
great article BTW
Posted 21:06 07th October 2011
Crusader says...
Rolf - you should also recognise that the AB team that played in PE was a distinctly B team but despite that they left 6 tries on the field and even the most ardent SA supporter would be the first to admit that SA were lucky not to be down by 3 tries inside the first 15 mins of that game.
Scrambling defence is all good and well, but the teams that break the line will eventually score from them...
Posted 20:12 07th October 2011
jiggainlondon says...
I hope Cruden gets some game time. I get the feeling he may play more than a bit part in this world cup.
Massive step up from ITM, but I think he has the ability to do it very soon. Hopefully he has the same level of confidence as the Manawatu vs. Waikato game, was one of the best displays from a flyhalf I have seen. Good bloke as well, has worked on the weaker areas of his game (since that game against Aussie last year) and deserves a chance.
Am hoping for a very competitive game, if the AB's are going to win the whole thing I think they need to get a decent test in this game. Argentina will be full of passion which will be great to watch, could be interesting if their defence stays intact for the first hour.
I just want today to be over so I can get up and watch the games tomorrow morning, so excited.
Posted 17:47 07th October 2011
davodiablo says...
Claudio
Your argument about player release from NH justifies NZ's international stance .And that will be your biggest problem come next years Four Nations . Realistically your local leagues need to keep your best players and I think a S15 spot would have been more helpful as it might attract players back fro the NH and ultimately improve your international teams availability come 4 Nats.
Posted 17:18 07th October 2011
atg77 says...
Come on New Zealand! I hope you anihilate them. ABs by 30+ points
Posted 15:40 07th October 2011
Carpelone says...
@ sebbb
Just imagine Italy with Contepomi, then. For sure, this is an Italian family name. Why not to launch an Italian/Argentinian Barbarian side? That's will be fun.
@ Rolf
Can not agree with you more. Just repeat the game in PE. They all said but this is an AB's side without Dan Carter. Apparently, and sadly because I am a huge fan of DC as a sportsman, this is going to be the case again next week.
Posted 15:38 07th October 2011
J_HDK says...
BradS
The Argentians were in floods during their antham against Scotland and were abysmal. They were extremely lucky to win that match.... and Scotland have very liitle quality in their starting XV. i'm very sad to say it looks like they will get hammered by NZ.
Posted 14:25 07th October 2011