Can Leinster become the first club in the eighteen-year history of the Heineken Cup to claim a hat-trick of titles? Why not?!
Last season, the Irish giants became the first team since Leicester - ten years ago - to defend their European crown, but three consecutive titles would raise the bar significantly higher. A fourth title in five years would lift them alongside Toulouse as Europe's must successful club.
Joe Schmidt's team have lost just once in this competition in their last 18 matches. Significantly, that loss came against Clermont Auvergne, against whom they have been drawn once again.
Most of the pre-tournament talk has, unfortunately, revolved around the crisis sparked by the English TV rights deal and the need for a revamp of how teams qualify. Whatever the outcome of the prolonged negotiations, it's certain that Europe's biggest competition will have a new look in 2014.
The need for change is clear to all who are willing to see it. While Leinster's army of Irish internationals have played a game or two since returning from holiday, Morgan Parra was on the field for every minute of Clermont's first seven games this season while Vincent Clerc was only a few minutes short of doing the same for Toulouse.
Of course part of the blame must lie with the French for having two extra teams in their domestic league - and thus a ridiculously long season - but the disparity in resources and effort required to compete for silverware in the Top 14 or the Premiership compared to the Pro12 is obvious.
Harlequins and Biarritz won't be complaining too much though because being grouped with Zebre and Connacht means they really would have no excuse for not making it through to the last eight.
No such luck for Leicester and Toulouse however. The 'Group of Death,' which includes Pro12 champions Ospreys and the ever-improving Treviso, is sure to see at least one of the big guns miss out on a quarter-final spot.
The usual suspects make up the list of title contenders - Leinster, Toulouse, Clermont - with the notable addition of Toulon, Harlequins and last year's finalists Ulster, who many feel are now Ireland's strongest club. After two poor European seasons, Munster must now be considered outsiders along with the likes of Leicester, Northampton and Saracens.
With an all-star squad that features internationals in almost every position, including the bench, Toulon are many pundits' pick to wrestle the trophy away from Dublin. Bernard Laporte's team had one weakness last year, the scrum. The solution? Import Andrew Sheridan and Genith Jenkins, add Bakkies Botha and Simon Shaw in the second row to lend a hand...problem solved!
Most importantly, the mix of big names is starting to gel with long-server squad members like Jonny Wilkinson and Joe van Nierkerk providing the glue. They've lost just once in eight games in the Top 14 - with a below-strength team away to Toulouse - so everything suggests they have all the tools required to get the job done.
The English challenge is likely to come from Quins. The Premiership champions showed they had the beating of Europe's best with a victory in Toulouse last year but undid all their good work by running out of steam against Connacht. With a settled squad and the confidence gained from their maiden domestic title, they represent the best bet to bring the Cup back to England for the first time since 2007. Given their draw, Chris Robshaw and co. will be gunning to be one of the top seeds after the pool stages.
All that said, it's only October and predictions in this tournament are seldom worth much. A long season lies ahead, it should be fascinating.
Comments
Jockstrap says...
@thebosstons: Leinster have rested all their internationals for the past two seasons and still finished comfortably at the top of the league. Their seconds alone would qualify them in the top 6 in my opinion.
Posted 19:40 11th October 2012
Sincero says...
@thejockstrap... Even if there had been only six berths for qualification the past few years, Leinster would have qualified regardless.
Fact remains, however, that as the only European League, we deserve more places, as we represent 4 unions, and thus are fully deserving of our 10 berths. The English proposal gives England 6 or 7 berths, and 1.5 per each of the 4 unions that compete in the Pro 12. Non runner. Why should England receive 6/7 berths when Ireland, a country that's provided 6 Cup winning teams, and routinely thrashed England over the past decade, then get 1.5 berths? Theeeeeaaaanx! But no thanks. It's a European Cup, so the only European league should not be equated with national leagues, and should contribute more teams.
We can keep our 10 berths and make them the top ten teams, regardless of nationality. That's the compromise. Otherwise we're back to shunning you for the third time in the history of the cup... and for the third time, you'll have only yourselves to blame.
Posted 18:47 11th October 2012
rpb24 says...
Firstly, why is it assumed that playing less games put a player in a position to perform better on the rugby field. Obviously if a player plays more games he is more likely to get injured and fatigue will be a factor too but are there not obvious benefits of playing top level rugby regularly?.....
Additionally, the French clubs in particular have enormous salary budgets. Clermont, Toulouse, Toulon and to a lesser extent Biarritz and Metro, have the ability to pay two world class players in each position. As has been seen in recent weeks, once the likes of Leinster's frontliners are unavailable either through injury or enforced rotation, there are no viable alternatives to fill the positions.
Posted 18:41 11th October 2012
Sincero says...
Need an edit button- but I'm sure you get the drift. If you want fairness, then let's see a salary cap introduced across the board.
As per your predictions: Ulster (did you add them in after several complaints?) are a fine side, and I believe they will mount a serious challenge. Clermont and Toulon could well be in the mix. Judgement on Toulouse will be reserved. Munster don't have the pack for once. 'Quins are the only English side that are anywhere near the grade, and much of that is thanks to the brilliance of Conor O'Shea. If you think Sarries can challenge, you are mentally disturbed. Leinster have it very tough with the injury list and the gap in the second row left by Hinesy/Thorn, but hope springs eternal.
Now, resources mentioned, and the reason why endless money in France and England means a salary cap must be introduced, let's get back to your idea that it's easy to compete for silverware in the Pro 12...
The sides that have made the final in recent years have invariably been the sides with the strongest squads. Since the introduction of the play-off system, it's notoriously difficult to win, never mind mount a challenge on two fronts. However, you seem to think teams rest all their best players all year long, then win undeserving European titles and leagues when the big lads show up to play their 2 or three annual matches. Tell me this... have you ever watched an aul' game of rugby at all?
The ignorance displayed in this article is sickening. You either have a personal agenda, have taken a brown envelope, or know absolutely nothing about this topic. In all cases, would you ever... .... ...? Thanks
Posted 18:40 11th October 2012
melkdave says...
Well i have to say there are some very juicey matches in the 1st round,for us fans to watch,Quins -Biaritz,Ulster-Castes,Clermont-Scarlets,Toulouse-Leicester and even Ospreys-Treviso,given the shock Treviso win in the Pro 12.Mouthwatering if i say so myself lol.Time for all the wrangaling and arguements to fade into the background imo.Though i have to say the 1st couple of posts ,show a real lack of understanding ,and look like they never read the entire article to boot.Must be irish posters ,who only have a provincle outlook on the game,and can only insult others ,knowing their dark secret is widly known now and even being copied by scottish clubs IE Abandoning the league programme for HEC glory .Also have to agree that Toulon if they are bothered look the team to beat this year,no other club ,has such an abundance of class thought their entire squad,even a 2nd XV is full of class players now..Leinster wining a 3rd consecative title in light of that fact does look remote,Espically as i expect the scottish clubs will also rest their players for HEC glory ,and they like Leinster/Munster/Ulster are packed full of internationals aswell.One thing is for sure come,the HEC will be very different or wont even be around
Posted 18:39 11th October 2012
Thebosston2 says...
@Jockstrap: Ireland being able to rest their players have everything to do with qualification. Do you think that system of resting players would be possible if Leinster were under pressure to qualify for Europe?
Posted 18:23 11th October 2012
Sincero says...
This website has gone to the dogs... what with the endless coverage of Southern Hemisphere non-stories, while neglecting European rugby, to this shockingly biased article delving into politics you either don't understand or do not wish to. This is simply disinformation.
There's a good chance your fee for this piece was around the 30 pieces of silver mark... Hope it was worth it. The word will go out now that you've been bought. Take it handy.
Posted 18:21 11th October 2012
kenttaff says...
ulster, one of irelands strongest clubs. are you having a laugh. i was at the hrc final last season and the gulf between the 2 sides was an emabarrasment. that scoreline should not have happened between 2 finalists in the best club competition in the world
Posted 17:52 11th October 2012
Sincero says...
What a bag of refuse. The French decided to double their work load, not anybody else. As for the English, the fact that you were playing in a competitive league week-in week-out was trotted out as a reason for their presumed superiority in the early days of this competition. Now that don't make the grade so often, they wish to ham-string your their, and deny places to 4 Unions... instead of getting a bit better at the sport.
Clerc and Parra have played many minutes? Well, that's terribly unfair! What a fix. You do, however, neglect to mention that Clermont and Toulouse can afford to field over four times the top-level rugby players Leinster can. Huge resources at their disposal, it's then entirely up to them how they employ them in a league structure which they voted to create for themselves.
Quins 'proved they were able to beat the best' against a Toulouse side in turmoil, yet 'ran out of steam' against Connacht? Suck it up. What a bleedin' love in.
Sickening article of utter dross. I regret now requesting a little European coverage on your last 'Loose Pass'. If this is the partisan bollox you spout, you should save it.
Posted 17:51 11th October 2012
Jockstrap says...
The mention about Leinster's army of internationals only playing a few games has nothing to do with Pro 12 qualification, it's because of the IRFU player management scheme. Nothing will change in that regard if Pro 12 qualification is changed, all the Irish teams International players will be just as rested as previous years. Lazy journalism Mr Editor.
Posted 17:42 11th October 2012
ramm83 says...
@ CMac and @Snowy1985 - Ahem, have you actually read the article. Utlster are listed as one of the six contenders, "The usual suspects make up the list of title contenders - Leinster, Toulouse, Clermont - with the notable addition of Toulon, Harlequins and last year's finalists Ulster, who many feel are now Ireland's strongest club".
Or you could just read the article...
Posted 17:26 11th October 2012
CMac says...
This is a terrible article.....I mean who wrote this rubbish?
No mention of Ulster, who are dominating the rabo (Im not an Ulster supporter), trash talking Connacht and Zebre, yet again suggesting that the Heineken cup structure needs changing when it is down to the domestic leagues to look after player welfare. And Its also easy to see that this website is far too biased to be a reputable source of any information....4 English clubs mention in contention...Joke...See you later planet rugby
Posted 15:46 11th October 2012
Snowy1985 says...
Ulster not on the list of challengers? I'd say they've got as good (and better in some cases) a chance as Leicester, Northampton and Saracens!
Posted 15:37 11th October 2012
BiggyFint says...
This is hands down the WORST sport related article I have read in my life. This is soooo bad I actually resent having wasted moments of my life that could have been spent doing anything other than reading this garbage. You say Rabo teams have a distinct advantage in the HC then lambaste Connacht and Zebre. If Rabo teams have such an advantage then why have you only mentioned Leinster as possible winners and Munster as outsiders? The English Bias on this website just keep getting worse. Four English teams as possible winners and no mention of Ulster who are undefeated in the Rabo and finalists last year. I don't know what cereal box tokens you collected to get this job but i'll tell you if any english team makes it to Dublin you'll be very lucky.
Posted 15:31 11th October 2012
3in4 says...
You can sort of tell that this article was written by an Englishman
The editor says.... This article was not written by an Englishman. But you can sort of tell you have a chip off your shoulder...
Posted 14:40 11th October 2012