In at 10: Paddy Jackson
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Ireland have arrived at something of a crossroads going into this weekend's Six Nations fixture against a Scotland line-up buoyed after victory over Italy.
Win at Murrayfield and their Championship hopes remain possible but lose and fixtures against France and Italy have added pressure attached.
Many Irish readers of this website have long been calling for change in terms of selection from coach Declan Kidney and while losing fly-half Jonathan Sexton was not an area of concern, the inclusion of Luke Marshall in place of Leinster's Gordon D'Arcy could lead to the possible break-up of one of international rugby's longest-serving partnerships.
D'Arcy is injured this week so Ulster youngster Marshall gets the nod ahead of other rivals such as James Downey, who it seems remains out of favour with Kidney (we'll see if he's fit for Munster this week). The other option was to move Brian O'Driscoll to 12 and start Munster team-mate Keith Earls in the outside centre channel. But a straight swap was decided upon and we see Marshall handed a huge chance.
A surprise saw Paddy Jackson leapfrog Ronan O'Gara as Sexton's fly-half replacement - supporters of Ian Madigan scoffed - in what's a bold move from Kidney. Uncharacteristic some might say. One wonders how the young Dungannon man will hold up in the Test arena with Conor Murray instead of Ruan Pienaar as his half-back partner. We believe one would struggle, as a 10, to find a better/intelligent 9 than Pienaar to assist your progress.
Up front coach Kidney also sprung something of a surprise by fast-tracking Tom Court into the loosehead jersey ahead of Dave Kilcoyne. This is a wise move due to Court having more experience of the international scene and Kilcoyne likely to bring more of an impact off the bench than the Ulster prop. The loss of Mike McCarthy to a knee problem is a blow, however, as he has been impressive. In his place comes veteran Donncha O'Callaghan.
This weekend, they need 34-year-old centre O'Driscoll to perform like he did against Wales and Jamie Heaslip not to play like he did against England. Speaking ahead of Sudnay, Munster back Earls has backed BOD to feature at the 2015 Rugby World Cup in England.
"Brian was amazing (in the win) against Wales," he explained, with Earls having replaced the injured Simon Zebo on the wing for this match.
"I wouldn't be surprised if he goes on until the next World Cup - he is feeling fresh and is buzzing. He has no fear, but is also very intelligent in the way he thinks about the game. His presence lifts you because you know he's willing to do anything for the team. It makes you want to do the same for him."
Scotland have someone with similar characteristics in their squad as Kelly Brown leads a side that sees just one change from their victory over the Azzurri. Geoff Cross gets the call for Sunday service due to Euan Murray's beliefs and one cannot underplay what belief a win over Ireland would give Scott Johnson's side going into their run-in against Wales and France. Johnson had a simple message for his players too ahead this weekend's fixture.
"We've kept changes to a minimum and are saying to the players: 'You've won one game. Now go out show us you can win another'," explained the coach ahead of Sunday's match.
They certainly have a chance of doing just particularly with the Scots demonstrating against Italy they finally have firepower in their backline in the shape of Tim Visser and Stuart Hogg.
Ones to watch:
For Scotland: We have spoken a lot about what Kelly Brown has provided Saracens in the back-row over the past season - and Scotland have also seen his worth in this Six Nations. The captain's performance on Sunday is instrumental in whether the Scots manage to gain parity against this Irish forward pack. If they can stifle them and also get stuck into the young 10-12 combination, they have a good chance of making it two wins from three in 2013.
For Ireland: Jamie Heaslip had what's known in the business as 'a shocker' in his last outing so will be desperate to rectify his Dublin errors when he runs out at Murrayfield. The captain struggled to adapt to the conditions against England and was guilty of dropping a couple of balls that he would usually take with ease. Experienced internationals don't become bad players overnight though so expect Heaslip to front up this weekend. Ulster backline duo Paddy Jackson and Luke Marshall of course will be under the microscope.
Head-to-head: Full-back for this one as two possible British and Irish Lions tourists battle it out. Stuart Hogg has arguably been Six Nations 2013's standout number 15 (cue other home nation full-backs disagreeing) while Rob Kearney rarely lets the side down for either Leinster and Ireland. We currently have both on the plane to Australia but if Hogg can again find space to cut loose, his stock will further rise before final call at Heathrow.
Recent results:
2012: Ireland won 32-14 at Aviva Stadium
2011: Scotland won 10-6 at Murrayfield
2011: Ireland won 21-18 at Murrayfield
2010: Scotland won 23-20 at Croke Park
2009: Ireland won 22-15 at Murrayfield
2008: Ireland won 34-13 at Croke Park
2007: Scotland won 31-21 at Murrayfield
2007: Ireland won 19-18 at Croke Park
2006: Ireland won 15-9 at Lansdowne Road
2005: Ireland won 40-13 at Murrayfield
2004: Ireland won 37-16 at Lansdowne Road
2003: Ireland won 29-10 at Murrayfield
2003: Ireland won 36-6 at Murrayfield
Prediction: While there is inexperience in the backline, we think an Ireland win by 5!
The teams:
Scotland: 15 Stuart Hogg, 14 Sean Maitland, 13 Sean Lamont, 12 Matt Scott, 11 Tim Visser, 10 Ruaridh Jackson, 9 Greig Laidlaw, 8 Johnnie Beattie, 7 Kelly Brown (c), 6 Rob Harley, 5 Jim Hamilton, 4 Richie Gray, 3 Geoff Cross, 2 Ross Ford, 1 Ryan Grant.
Replacements: 16 Dougie Hall, 17 Moray Low, 18 Jon Welsh, 19 Alastair Kellock, 20 David Denton, 21 Henry Pyrgos, 22 Duncan Weir, 23 Max Evans.
Ireland: 15 Rob Kearney, 14 Craig Gilroy, 13 Brian O'Driscoll, 12 Luke Marshall, 11 Keith Earls, 10 Paddy Jackson, 9 Conor Murray, 8 Jamie Heaslip (c), 7 Sean O'Brien, 6 Peter O'Mahony, 5 Donnacha Ryan, 4 Donncha O'Callaghan, 3 Mike Ross, 2 Rory Best, 1 Tom Court.
Replacements: 16 Sean Cronin, 17 Dave Kilcoyne, 18 Declan Fitzpatrick, 19 Devin Toner, 20 Iain Henderson, 21 Eoin Reddan, 22 Ronan O'Gara, 23 Luke Fitzgerald.
Date: Sunday, 24 February
Venue: Murrayfield
Kick-off: 14:00 GMT
Referee: Wayne Barnes (England)
Assistant referees: Jérôme Garces (France), Greg Garner (England)
Television match official: Eric Gauzins (France)
Comments
curates_egg says...
Isn't Henderson a tall rangy 2nd row, who has filled in at 6 this season? Certainly, his career to date would suggest so. Will certainly not and never will be a 7.
Posted 09:34 23rd February 2013
melkdave says...
:@mcdb06
Im well aware that Henderson usually plays 6 ,and covers the lineout,but Ireland are very short of specialist 7s/In facti dont think they have any atm??.Even Henry is a 6 converted to a 7 same with SOB.So looking to the future,id have both Henry and Henderson,playing 7.So S.Ferris when he returns can slot into 6 and SOB can play his best postion8.Henderson has pace,can tackle well,and offers a lineout option,which Scotland wil attack today.Just my idel thinking so probily wrong,but at least ive explained my reasoning ,and i honest think he would make a good 7 longterm LOL
Posted 08:34 23rd February 2013
porridge_time says...
admack says...
Not suggesting for a minute that Scotland are better side than Ireland, but in realistic term Ireland played one decent 40 minutes against an off the pace Wales.
Italy were not actually terrible to be fair, Scotland allowed them the possession and backed their defence and scored four tries which could on any other day been five or six. Although I do agree with you on the consistency side of things with Scotland... but I get the feeling that things might be on an upward curve here... the handling errors that have plagued the Scots game for years were not an issue against England - England were just a better side on the day - or against Italy.
For me I see this as Scotland's game to lose and not the other way round. Ireland a depleted by injury and although the guys they have brought in are hugely talented there are still a bit greener at test level their Scots counter parts.
I'm going for a comfortable home victory... but that will only happen if the forwards step up to the mark and win the breakdown/collision area.
Posted 02:32 23rd February 2013
PatrickH says...
Ironmanl441, you forgot Trimble, Earls, Henshaw, Madigan, Keatley & several others I'm sure I'm forgetting as well.
Posted 22:38 22nd February 2013
mcdb06 says...
@melkdave
"Myself i would have played Henderson at 7 as Henry is crocked,and moved SOB to 8 ,but i expect thats just to radical for Mr Kidney" - No it isnt too radical, it just doesnt make sense.
Henderson is a tall, rangy backrow who plays at 6 and can cover the second row. Makes no sense at all to put him as an openside in an international. It's a position he has never played before and there are plenty of better players at the breakdown in the squad.
Posted 20:58 22nd February 2013
scot_rsa says...
@ironmanl441 - Scotland have long had a self-inflicted problem at 10 it is true. For years we have backed safety over flair and thrown talent away. And when safe options like Parks have bad games we criticise them. It is our selection policy that is wrong and a lack of support for guys like Gordon Ross or Chris Paterson who want to play there. Hogg and Scott can play 10, Horne is playing tonight for Glasgow at 10. May be a good sign. But why don't we get Chalmers or Paterson to identify and nurture a real 10 and stick with him? It would really ignite our promising backline as you say. And overcome a psychological problem with the position.
Posted 20:32 22nd February 2013
sextons_on_fire says...
Kidney ur a TOOL...lol
Posted 20:12 22nd February 2013
papachinzo says...
I'd like Scotland to win, but I can see Ireland winning this by 10-15 points, why? because stone cold said so. #KidneyOUT
Posted 15:52 22nd February 2013
ironmanI441 says...
@collarbone
The chubbies!... That may have been true in the amateur era (photos of old props are like modern couch potatoes, just with great hidden engines), but I wouldn't want to mention "Chubbies" to Courtney Lawes or Sebastian Chabal.
My admiration for some of the Scots squad is growing. Kelly Brown is a serious asset to any squad, Richie Gray is coming back into form, and Hogg is just a buccaneering 15 at his best. I just wish Ross Rennie was fit, because as stats have shown on BBC he is actually a better ball carrier, tackler, and thief than Warburton and Robshaw when the stats are all added up. (However don't get me wrong I think Robshaw is a machine).
I still think though that Scotland are let down by 10. I mean look at Ireland, they lose Sexton and put in Paddy Jackson and have Ronan O'Gara for backup. All three are leagues ahead of any Scottish 10 as Grieg Laidlaw is playing 9 currently.
Would have liked to see a younger Irish squad to start the 6 nations with, but I guess Kidney is just a bit more cautious than I would be. Backline options are Cave, Marshall, BOD, Gilroy, Zebo, Kearney, Tommy Bowe (injured), Sexton (injured), D'Arcy (injured), Jackson, Fitzgerald.. I mean that is a lot of firepower to have for a small country as far as population to choose from.
Posted 14:47 22nd February 2013
collarbone says...
My feeling is Scotland had result playing Eng first then Italy. Dean Ryan is making the forwards listen and we all know the chubbies win matches.
Posted 13:19 22nd February 2013
admack says...
I think it'll be a thumping by Ireland - I am Scottish and have to show my lack of confidence in scottish rugby. We need to remember we beat a terrible Italian team, this game counts far too highly for Ireland for them to be a soft option. Ireland by at least 15
Posted 12:57 22nd February 2013
daveyboyo says...
What are people banging on about Fitz at 12??? He's played no rugby there this year, and he's an out and out winger! It would've have been a bigger travesty for him to play there than for Earls to start there!
Posted 12:12 22nd February 2013
Irishzimbabwean says...
curates_egg - while I agree entirely with you on the Marshall v Downey points, I do think you should reconsider giving up on the Anger Management courses!
Posted 11:38 22nd February 2013
J_Hdk says...
curates egg - in fairness to PR this was a decent summation of the opinion s voiced by Irish fans on the site.
I agree with you re Downey. He is at the end of his career, will never make it to the next RWC and thusly there is no value in just handing him a cap for the sake of it.
Posted 10:46 22nd February 2013
melkdave says...
This is such an intriging match,because Kidney has done the unexpected.Cant say i agree with the way his done it,but i do whole heartedly think his made the right calls for this match,and the future of irish rugby.Win or Lose.Once again i feel this match is going to be won by the team whose backrow gets the edge at the breakdown,and imo both teams are very evenly matched here.Myself i would have played Henderson at 7 as Henry is crocked,and moved SOB to 8 ,but i expect thats just to radical for Mr Kidney ,even in his new take a risk persona,as it means dropping Heslip the captain.to the bench.As to victors im going with Scotland by 3 because i think they have a slight edge in the tight 5 ,and lineout.
Posted 10:30 22nd February 2013
curates_egg says...
Typical PR. It really reflects badly on your level of analysis and knowledge of Irish rugby that you are still banging on about Downey. He wasn't even mentioned as an option anywhere except here.
Luke Marshall is a really exciting talent and hopefully it goes well for him. However - to help your future reporting - the other options that were under consideration for Ireland were: McFadden at 12; BOD moving to 12 and Earls 13; Luke Fitz-BOD. Marshall is the future for Ireland in the position if he stays fit, so this is a big chance for him to ensure his name is the name to replace DArcy next season.
James Downey isn't "out of favour" with Declan Kidney. He has never been in favour because there are lots of better players playing in Ireland.
He is not automatic first choice at Munster because he is a pretty limited player. Take off the premiership specs. He had a good season on the bosh with Northampton 2010/11 but that is as far as it goes.
Posted 09:55 22nd February 2013
atg77 says...
Scotland is superior to the opposition in every backline position bar outside centre. If they can even just get parity upfront, Scotland will comfortably by ten points.
Posted 09:53 22nd February 2013
dodgyrog says...
too close to call, if scotland get ahead I would expect them to win. this must be the youngest irish backline in decades. this game will be decided by the fly halves, Paddy Jackson is a very good attacking player but his tactical and place kicking need improving where as R.jackson would blow very hot or cold
Posted 09:51 22nd February 2013
rugby_rockstar says...
Who'd have given Scotland a chance of beating Ireland at the start of the championship? Not many, but if Scotland get a good start then they could dictate the way this match is played. Ireland will know they came short in the tactical kicking vs England and they won't be happy becasue its been a staple of the irish game plan for so long. The Scottish defence was awesome vs Italy and if the irish can't get over the gainline then territory will be so important to both sides. My one to watch is Paddy Jackson. Ireland would love to get a 9 point lead and be able to bring on ROG to shut up shop, because they are still questionmarks about scotland's ability to finish off chances. If Jackson struggles then the Irish pack has to take the initative and give their 10 the platform to play front foot rugby. Not easy against Scotland in murrayfield. Ask the springboks.
It is a very tight match to predict, I'd love to back the Scots to underline the italy win over a disrupted ireland, but scotland aren't consistant and you should never underestimate BOD and the Irish backrow... ah hell, I'm going to say Scotland. Just because the Scottish game needs a shot in the arm, and it'll be good for the Lions to have a decent core of players from all four countries.
Posted 09:45 22nd February 2013
carpelone says...
Ireland to mess this up for Scotland and sneak it.
Ireland by 3.
Posted 09:35 22nd February 2013