Second Test: Can Ireland trouble the All Blacks?
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Ireland have the proverbial mountain to climb when they face New Zealand in Christchurch in the second Test of the three-match series on Saturday.
New Zealand showed in last week's 42-10 rout that they are not suffering from a World Cup hangover and are determined to build on their triumph at last year's global showpiece.
Although the weight of expectation has been lifted with that win, the All Blacks will be expected to put in another polished performance as this will be the first time since August 2010 that a Test is played in Christchurch after an earthquake devastated the city.
New Zealand didn't just dominate the Auckland Test on the scoreboard as several of Ireland's best players were made to look average in their battles with their direct opponents.
Take Sean O'Brien v Richie McCaw, Jonny Sexton v Dan Carter and Rob Kearney v Israel Dagg as examples. The three Irish stalwarts were at the forefront of Leinster's successful Heineken Cup campaign and were hailed as amongst the best players in their respective positions by many supporters from the Emerald Isle.
However, they - like the rest of their team-mates - came off second best (by some distance) when they went head-to-head with their All Blacks counterparts and will have to play out of their skins if they want to restore some pride.
An interesting statistic is that of All Blacks outside centre Conrad Smith, who by winning 50 of his 56 Test matches now has the highest winning percentage of any player in the world with more than 50 Test wins (89.3 percent).
Don't expect much to change when these sides clash at the weekend. Under Graham Henry's guidance, New Zealand gained a reputation for being ruthless once they have the upperhand over their opponents and with Steve Hansen now in charge that philosophy hasn't changed.
"Once again, for us it's about our preparation, getting clarity early in the week and building in intensity so we can have a performance we can all be proud of on Saturday," Hansen revealed.
"We (the coaches) are expecting further improvements in our game due to the extra training and preparation time we have had together, along with having a game under our belt.
"We are also expecting Ireland to improve, as they are a nation with a 'never-say-die' attitude so what we did last time won't be good enough."
Although that last comment is true, Ireland will be approaching this clash with great trepidation. Beating the All Blacks in New Zealand is one of the greatest achievements in the game for any country and Ireland are yet to do that in 107 years of trying.
Captain Brian O'Driscoll believes that beating the world champions would rate as the highest accolade after a World Cup win, so the men in green will not be lacking motivation to achieve that goal.
O'Driscoll is joined in Ireland's midfield by Leinster team-mate Gordon D'Arcy for the 48th time in a Test which extends their world record for a centre partnership while the encounter is also a momentous occasion for Jamie Heaslip, who will make his 50th Test appearance.
A less glamorous addition to the starting line-up is loosehead prop Mike Ross whose return should improve Ireland's efforts in the scrums.
If they want to stand any chance of claiming a win Ireland will have to match their host in all facets of play as the home side seldom allow opponents to play to their strengths, especially when they are playing in front of a New Zealand crowd.
If, as is expected, it's going to be a cold and wet match then we won't be blessed with the free-running spectacle which we saw last week but regardless of the conditions this match will provide plenty of drama and entertainment.
Players to watch:
For New Zealand: There are so many attacking threats in this All Blacks side but after his hat-trick of tries on debut last week, all eyes will be on Julian Savea. Power, pace and skill, Savea has it all and although it's highly unlikely, All Blacks supporters will be wondering if he can match last week's try-scoring heroics in this Test. With creative players like Carter, Dagg, Sonny Bill Williams and Conrad Smith in the same line-up don't be surprised if he makes another big impact on Saturday.
For Ireland: Ireland full-back Rob Kearney might have played second fiddle to Israel Dagg last week but he remains a class act. Fearless under the high ball, solid in the tackle and devastating on attack, Kearney does everything that's expected of an international number 15 and more. He has the ability to tear any defence to shreds and this part of his game is important in giving his side attacking momentum.
Head-to-head: Ireland's front-row has been strengthened with the inclusion of Mike Ross and it should be riveting viewing when his combination with Cian Healey and Rory Best go up against New-Zealand's front three of Tony Woodcock, Andrew Hore and Owen Franks in the scrums. No front-ranker enjoys being pushed around at the set-piece and we all know the paradox about when an irresistible force meets an immovable object...well, something's got to give!
Previous results:
2012: Ireland lost 42-10 in Auckland
2010: Ireland lost 38-18 at Aviva Stadium
2010: Ireland lost 66-28 in New Plymouth
2008: Ireland lost 3-22 at Croke Park
2008: Ireland lost 21-11 in Wellington
2006: Ireland lost 27-17 in Auckland
2006: Ireland lost 24-23 in Hamilton
2005: Ireland lost 7-45 at Lansdowne Road
2002: Ireland lost 40-8 in Auckland
2002: Ireland lost 15-6 in Dunedin
2001: Ireland lost 29-40 at Lansdowne Road
Prediction: Everybody knows what's going to happen in this match. Although Ireland are expected to be more competitive, and rain is always a great leveller, they will not have enough ammunition to take down the mighty All Blacks. New Zealand by 15 points!
The teams:
New Zealand: 15 Israel Dagg, 14 Zac Guildford, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Sonny Bill Williams, 11 Julian Savea, 10 Dan Carter, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Kieran Read, 7 Richie McCaw (c), 6 Adam Thomson, 5 Sam Whitelock, 4 Brodie Retallick, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Andrew Hore, 1 Tony Woodcock.
Replacements: 16 Hika Elliot, 17 Ben Franks, 18 Ali Williams, 19 Sam Cane, 20 Piri Weepu, 21 Aaron Cruden, 22 Ben Smith.
Ireland: 15 Rob Kearney, 14 Fergus McFadden, 13 Brian O'Driscoll (c), 12 Gordon D'Arcy, 11 Andrew Trimble, 10 Jonathan Sexton, 9 Conor Murray, 8 Jamie Heaslip. 7 Sean O'Brien, 6 Kevin McLaughlin, 5 Donnacha Ryan, 4 Dan Tuohy, 3 Mike Ross, 2 Rory Best, 1 Cian Healy.
Replacements: 16 Sean Cronin, 17 Declan Fitzpatrick, 18 Donncha O'Callaghan, 19 Peter O'Mahony, 20 Eoin Reddan, 21 Ronan O'Gara, 22 Simon Zebo.
Date: Saturday, June 16
Kick-off: 19:35 (08:35 BST, 07:35 GMT)
Venue: AMI Stadium, Christchurch
Weather:A few showers. Cold southwesterlies. Min -2°C, Max 6°C
Referee: Nigel Owens (Wales)
Assistant referees: Romain Poite (France), Pascal Gauzere (France)
Television match official: Matt Goddard (Australia)
by David Skippers
Comments
Sharkyzulu says...
Ireland will be lucky not to ship 50 this week. The Christchurch factor is going to be huge, especially as the spine of the time are Canterbury players (past & present). Ireland's only chance of conceding sub-50 is the weather clamping down making running rugby difficult.
Not sure what D'arcy's been picked for? He's been hopeless for a few seasons now - Ireland need to move on and pick a team to win, not to keep the score down.
I'm looking forward to a great spectacle of rugby but sadly for Ireland there are not many surer bets than the result of this game...
Posted 11:13 15th June 2012
startledwombat says...
@sandal, @ABlack - I was at Lancaster Park for the 12-6 loss by Australia against the All Blacks. My seat was up on the top of the old open grandstand. It has since been demolished. The night was 3 degrees, sleet and occasional hail. What clinched it (clenched it?) was the wind, and looking down through the raincloud at the players.
In other words, it was much like Canberra in July.
At least it wasn't as bad as the Great Lancaster Park Fog Test where the players on the wing couldn't see the game.
PR - it's been more than just one earthquake, as you know and as you probably thought someone would point out. About 6 hefty ones so far, and just under 4,000 all up. Two of the bigger ones have happened while I've been in town, it is remarkably frightening. Under about 4.5 are usually inconsequential depending on how distant they are and whther or not your house is broken. Here's the best link, for anyone who wants to check ground conditions as well as weather conditions before the game:
http://www.christchurchquakemap.co.nz/
Magnitude range and Number
7.0 and above 1
6.0 - 6.9 3
5.0 - 5.9 55
4.0 - 4.9 423
3.0 - 3.9 3110
Posted 10:54 15th June 2012
Jmehrtens says...
@hayj05
100 wins for McCaw could still be far away or at least next year. Injuries aside he might lose one or two games in the 4N and be rested for another 2 or 3 games (3rd Ireland test, Italy, Scotland).
But more importantly a 93th win, his next win would mean he has the highest amount of test matches won of any player in the world
Posted 10:23 15th June 2012
GCP_JONES says...
You would hope that the game will be at least a spectacle to match the occassion of New Zealand playing in Christchurch.
But yet again Kidney has named a team that will be confused in their approach by choosing C Murray at srcrum-half. The only hope for a decent test match is that the players on the park take ownership of the tactics and ignore the coach, like the French did at the tail end of the World Cup.
what is worrying is how predictable International rugby is becoming, but can I ask all the NZ postors, are theses victories becoming Hollow.
Posted 10:10 15th June 2012
Jmehrtens says...
Nice stat on Conrad S. but not a fair comparison since he is an all black and they hardly ever play against stronger opposition.
Posted 10:01 15th June 2012
marzie says...
O'Brien had a damn fine game last week whilst McCaw wasn't up to his usual standards. Credit where credit's due.
Posted 09:56 15th June 2012
johnthebean says...
Ireland to dismantle NZ with a scintillating display of running rugby setting up a winner-takes-all decider the following weekend...(sorry, the trauma is too great and has driven me into a parallel universe fantasy-land where the impossible is possible).
Posted 09:50 15th June 2012
Capedcrusader says...
@ABlack
Continually play Test games in the south Island in the middle of winter.
They are in fact few and far between.
Weather doesn't look that bad a few showers plus easing S'or wester. Glad for them to finally come home (back). Missing the RWC was devastating & the R&B boys deserve to play on home soil albeit a figment of the desimated Lancaster Parks imagination - would have been nice to have had 35k+ helping out.
The noticable difference for me is the creativity of the backlines. The ABs always look to create space for the support runners midfield to open options either side. The Irish will also need to distrupt our set piece - easier said & play as a instinctive unit.
Another big advantage is the confidence the blacks have in each other. There is an expectation that if one breaks the gainline others will be in support (often in no's) & then the real clinicality clicks in - regardless of what the conditions. If wet they stay tight which can often be more dangerous as the oppo are far more exposed (chasing shadows) than say when a one on one / two away from the loosies comes about. You see it so often with NH sides particularly the forwards they end up isolated when one breaks & just get turned over & defence becomes attack.
Good luck both teams lets hope it is an enthralling test match although I would happily watch the ABs score 100 points in ever game they play - why - I love u guys
Posted 09:49 15th June 2012
Norm says...
Sandal
Nice comment re the weather. This is one of the things that makes the game special
Posted 09:45 15th June 2012
Taffster says...
How can Conrad Smith have highest winning percentage? Sevea, Smith and Retalick have a 100% record.
Posted 08:41 15th June 2012
Wallaroo says...
PR you underestimate the All Blacks, last week was a warm up game for them. Sit back Kiwi's you are about to witness the AB's post their biggest score ever against the Irish.
Posted 08:39 15th June 2012
blametheref says...
Think Kiwilad has nailed it, "belief" and then just add a little bit of fatigue and you have where Ireland are at on this tour. Part of this lack of belief is I believe in the Irish coach who persists in playing Sexton with a scrum half he clearly does not prefer as the on field evidence shows. Not only this, Sexton knows that even if Ireland are winning with 15 minutes to go that Kidney will not be able to resist putting his favourite 10 on in O' Gara. Cumulatively, this amounts to the best Irish 10, Sexton, taking the field without the proper tools to play for Ireland as he does for Leinster...Shame really, as most Irish supporters know the Irish players are much better than when they play for Ireland, and that is no disrespect to how good New Zealand are as a rounded team, but fact...Very frustrating!
Posted 08:28 15th June 2012
howrtings says...
Just one bone to pick...Kearney is NOT "solid in the tackle"...it's really the only weakness in his game, but for me a BIG weakness. It's all about bottle, and some times RK s**ts the course....IMO.
Posted 08:12 15th June 2012
hayj05 says...
Nice stat on Conrad, but I think McCaws record "as part of the team" is more impressive considering he's played in nearly double the amount of tests.
McCaw has been a part of 92 wins in 104 tests (88.46%)
Including an 80.76% winning record against the Wallabies & a 73.68% winning record against the Springboks which make up 45 (43.27%) of the tests in total.
Against all other opponents he is 57 out of 59 or a 96.61% winning record, with 1 loss being against France in 07 & 1 loss being against England in 03.
His record dips marginally as captain (88.06%) & 12 of his 19 tries or 63.16% of them have come against tri-nations opponents (43.27% of matches) which suggests he takes matters into his own hands when he's playing the great rivals & last year a personal streak was broken of scoring at least 1 try for the AB's in every season since 2004 (7 seasons).
15 points seems like a sound prediction to me if it's expected to rain although it may be a little closer & I would never rule Ireland out with a chance of winning.
Posted 07:16 15th June 2012
sandal says...
@ABlack
I was there in Wellington in 2008 when the All Blacks won 21-11.
I'm not sure I have ever been more wet. My wife has never forgiven me for taking her along.
But, hey, rugby is a winter game. It is played in all kinds of weather.
The players should be ready for that and we, the fans, should celebrate the variety that the weather gives to the game.
Posted 06:47 15th June 2012
three6three6 says...
The prevailing weather conditions might help to keep the score lower than last time.... but do not bet on this AB team playing stilted 10 man rugby... it is just not in their DNA to play this way.
Mention is made of Conrad Smith, who by winning 50 of his 56 Test matches now has the highest winning percentage of any player in the world with more than 50 Test wins (89.3 percent). Mention should also be made of Richie McCaw who has now won 92 of his 104 Test matches only a mere 88.5 percent winning percentage. What is also intriguing is that McCaw will also become the first player to achieve 100 wins in test matches for his country.... Other players may do this in the future.... (Dan Carter, Keven Mealamu?) but because of the consistent success of the ABs it is ONLY likely to be New Zealand players who achieve this remarkable milestone.
Posted 03:46 15th June 2012
safehands says...
In my opinion, this will be closer than most people expect...and I hope so for the All Blacks sake. We need hard competitive games prior to the new Championship and world rugby needs the likes of England, Ireland, Wales, Argentina etc to be strong rugby playing nations who can not just compete with the best in the world, but also potentially beat them on any given day. Realistic potential I mean...
Posted 01:39 15th June 2012
kiwilad says...
Not enough of the Irish team really believe they can beat the ABs, when the pressure comes on, belief is a big part of winning...
Posted 01:07 15th June 2012
pierredelot1 says...
New Zealand by 15 thats a bit conservative. Nearer 30 methinks. McCaw two average games in a row, I doubt it, or is the man becoming mortal.
Posted 23:57 14th June 2012
ruckingkiwi says...
I imagine the AB forwards will want to put in a big shift if the weather is poor.. so it'll be interesting to see how they go.. seems like a fair prediction though, roll on tommorrow.
Posted 23:38 14th June 2012