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Preview: Australia v New Zealand

19th October 2012 06:21

All Blacks at Suncorp Stadium

In Brisbane: All Blacks

With that world record 18 victories in their sights, the All Blacks go in hunt of moving to within one of that target when they face Australia on Saturday.

Beating the Wallabies this weekend would equal the mark set by the 1969 All Blacks and the Boks of 1998. Lithuania hold the official highest total while Cyprus (15 international wins) will no doubt keep knocking on the door, so New Zealand are not alone in striving for global bragging rights.

Speaking of landmarks, the fixture at Suncorp will see Keven Mealamu make his 100th appearance for his country while Nathan Sharpe will wear the gold for one last time in front of Australian fans on home soil. How the veteran lock will hope it's not to be during their 100th loss to New Zealand.

The Force forward, who recently announced that he would further prolong his international career until after the end-of-year tour, will lace up his boots alongside Sitaleki Timani in a pack that has seen more than its fair share of injuries. This week, it's Saia Faingaa and Ben Alexander.

Injury nightmares have not ended there either as James O'Connor revealed on Thursday that he would not feature on the upcoming tour due to a hamstring issue, which means he joins scrum-half Will Genia and utility-back Berrick Barnes in definitely missing November games against France, England, Italy and Wales. Should their rotten luck continue, a testing winter month in Europe lies in wait.

New Zealand could not be in more of a contrasting state going into this contest, as an unbeaten Rugby Championship and players fit and in form makes theirs a happy camp. They seem settled and even boast the luxury of experimenting instead of changes being forced upon them. In comes tighthead Charlie Faumuina, who has waited patiently for his start while there is one other change of Mealamu in for Andrew Hore as they look for revenge for that 25-20 defeat 14 months ago when the Wallabies won the Tri-Nations.

Sam Whitelock touched on that loss this week so by no means will this just be a warm-down with the Bledisloe Cup already safely locked up for another year, the Kiwis want to make a statement. Can they be beaten? It seems unlikely due to the cohesive unit the All Blacks have become. Steve Hansen is also timing his tweaks perfectly - case in point being the inclusion of Hosea Gear over a much less experienced Julian Savea for their game in Soweto. That move proved inspired as Gear deserved his return, shone and has ultimately retained his place after causing SA a great deal of bother. Savea will get other chances.

Yes, we can say what we like about the Wallabies' injury issues, South Africa's selection arguments and Argentina's rebirth but not enough credit has been paid to Hansen in our opinion. Look back at 2003 and 2007 for a moment and how those English and Springbok teams struggled to remain at the World Cup bar they had set themselves. New Zealand meanwhile have gone about their business post-Graham Henry, with Hansen looking set to lead a group capable of greater standards right up until 2015's main event in England.

Ones to watch:

For Australia: Barring the absence of David Pocock, this looks as close as Australia are going to get to their starting back-row line-up. Wycliff Palu returns on Saturday after a long absence and forms a well-balanced trio alongside the busy Michael Hooper and in-form Scott Higginbotham and Robbie Deans will be hoping they click in quick time. When fully fit, Palu is a destructive and intelligent carrier so one hopes he plays to his potential behind a lock who will be playing his last game on home soil for Australia, Nathan Sharpe.

For New Zealand: Kieran Read and Daniel Carter were quite simply superb against South Africa in Soweto. Carter had his swagger back while Read was his consistent self at the base, despite almost bombing a certain try for Cory Jane before recovering to find Ma'a Nonu on his other shoulder. Carter meanwhile was once again back to his mesmeric as his set-up of Conrad Smith's try from slick hands being one of the highlights from last time out. All Blacks fans and neutrals hope for more displays of simple yet brilliant rugby again.

Head-to-head: We arrive at hooker for this battle as the powerful Tatafu Polota-Nau collides with the man making his 100th Test appearance for the All Blacks, Keven Mealamu. The Blues veteran has been handed the starting spot on Saturday and will be only the third All Black to reach the distinguished milestone, following captain Richie McCaw and full-back Mils Muliaina who made their 100th appearances during last year's successful Rugby World Cup. Polota-Nau and Mealamu know each other's games well but that shouldn't take anything away from their battle. On the other end of the scale, two players who have never faced each other on the international stage, Nick Cummins and Hosea Gear, clash on the wing. Both are high-impact entertainers which bodes well for a decent scrap this Saturday.

Recent results:

2012: New Zealand won 22-0 in Auckland
2012: New Zealand won 27-19 in Sydney
2011: New Zealand won 20-6 in Auckland
2011: Australia won 25-20 in Brisbane
2011: New Zealand won 30-14 in Auckland
2010: Australia won 26-24 in Hong Kong
2010: New Zealand won 23-22 in Sydney
2010: New Zealand won 20-10 in Christchurch
2010: New Zealand won 49-28 in Melbourne
2009: New Zealand won 32-19 in Tokyo

Prediction: Australia are an unprecedented 7/1 to win at home. New Zealand by 15!

The teams:

Australia: 15 Mike Harris, 14 Nick Cummins, 13 Ben Tapuai, 12 Pat McCabe, 11 Adam Ashley-Cooper, 10 Kurtley Beale, 9 Nick Phipps, 8 Wycliff Palu, 7 Michael Hooper, 6 Scott Higginbotham, 5 Nathan Sharpe (c), 4 Sitaleki Timani, 3 James Slipper, 2 Tatafu Polota Nau, 1 Benn Robinson.
Replacements: 16 James Hanson, 17 Sekope Kepu, 18 Kane Douglas, 19 Dave Dennis, 20 Liam Gill, 21 Brett Sheehan, 22 Drew Mitchell.

New Zealand: 15 Israel Dagg, 14 Cory Jane, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma'a Nonu, 11 Hosea Gear, 10 Daniel Carter, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Kieran Read, 7 Richie McCaw (c), 6 Liam Messam, 5 Sam Whitelock, 4 Brodie Retallick, 3 Charlie Faumuina, 2 Keven Mealamu, 1 Tony Woodcock.
Replacements: 16 Andrew Hore, 17 Owen Franks, 18 Luke Romano, 19 Victor Vito, 20 Piri Weepu, 21 Aaron Cruden, 22 Ben Smith.

Date: Saturday, October 20
Venue: Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
Kick-off: 20:00 (10:00 GMT)
Referee: Craig Joubert (South Africa)
Assistant referees: Jaco Peyper (South Africa), Lourens van der Merwe (South Africa)
TMO: Matt Goddard (Australia)

By Adam Kyriacou

Comments

rugby_rockstar says...

Haven't oz held it since John Eales retired in 2001?

Maybe the Aussie Rugby League team should do something similar with the NZ RL side to get their own back!

Posted 14:29 19th October 2012

Trader2 says...

The AB's cannot win really!!!

If they win the match by 4+ tries everyone will say "well, told you they should have put 7 on the Oz 'D' side"

If they win narrowly well it will be "how close the top teams are in world rugby and Oz are getting closer"

If they lose well they would have been "arrogant, taking Oz too easy and anyway they cheated their way to every major comp they have won, so the result is no surprise"

Anyway I will stick my neck out and say the AB's by 1 point. ( because there is only one thing better than beating the Wannabies by 50 points and thats beating them by 1) I will have to watch the replay as out to dinner tomorrow night.

Posted 14:09 19th October 2012

kpe12 says...

Why do PR always talk Carter up so hard. Swagger? The guy put 2 dropkick restarts out on the full! (one very costly). He's nowhere near where he was 4+ years ago BY HIS STANDARDS.

Read on the other hand is playing on another level (best forward on the planet right now), he is the heart of the ABs where Richie is the guts, it's interesting watching Read pop up everyone on everyone's shoulder on offence where Richie pops up everywhere on the other end of the paddock. I'm not sure he has Richie's composure but he will most definitely be a welcome captain come 2015 WC.

ABs by 20, this is a statement game of intent from Hansen, he wants to show everyone that he's willing to stomp on a team when its down, this is no dead rubber.

Posted 14:04 19th October 2012

latin says...

why do they keep playing for this cup, australia always loses, except maybe once a decade they win this cup. Must be the most unexciting tournament in rugby the bledisloe.

Posted 12:28 19th October 2012

benski says...

Actually, dispite having posted what I did below, I am wondering about this, I think it will depend a bit on how much the ABs want to avoid injuies and keep their powder dry, it could turn out to be a case of do just enough to get the win and back off the gas.

Posted 11:26 19th October 2012

jmanngod says...

@carpelone...yup, keep telling yourself that mate... 'not that good" ..right!

Posted 11:21 19th October 2012

TheTruthHurts says...

I seriously worry about Aus in this match we are so under strength, and playing the best team on the planet! If we even make this a contest it will be a minor miracle!

Head says NZ by 20 Heart says Miracle please OZ by 1 ;)

Posted 10:38 19th October 2012

cuw3100 says...

MIB wont lose but also wont win by 15. OZ only have pride to play for: margin of 7.

Posted 10:36 19th October 2012

new_j4a says...

ABs by more than 25, maybe a lot more, but unlikely to win by more than 40 points

Posted 09:50 19th October 2012

Carpelone says...

All Blacks are very good, but not that good, considering how they were hammered by the Baby Boks in the first 25 minutes in Soweto (it could have been easily 16 nil for the Baby Boks). They however dug themselves out quite in style as they have the rare capability to turn rubbish into gold (that missed kick from Jaco Taute was brilliantly turned into Whitelock try, which imo was the turning point of the game). Smith's try was a kind gift by a shocking defense which did not advance or scramble. For New Zealand, it was like playing with dummies. In the recent past, such an awful defense would have earned you the right to patrol the Mozambique's border, rather than wasting your time playing rugby.

Having said that, New Zealand's composure and individual skills are far better than any other team in business and I can't see them losing this, by 10+.

They could lose (not tomorrow) only if they have a day off.

Posted 09:44 19th October 2012

benski says...

All Blacks by 30+ watch out for an A kicking.

Posted 08:53 19th October 2012

Terry_English says...

Wallabies assistant coach Nick Scrivener has declared the All Blacks eminently ''vulnerable'' for Saturday's Test against Australia.

Why do coaches say things like that or is it the press taking it out of context? I did feel sympathy for Australia and Robbie Deans because of the injuries.

I watched Argentina vs Australia this morning and Argentina played their worst match in the Rugby Championship. Both teams were woeful and if the Wallabies play like that, then they will lose by 30 points.

Posted 08:33 19th October 2012

nzmaoriboy says...

Oz will be competitive for 50 mins! then I expect the AB's to kick away from there...too many newbies & injuries for Oz..Determination & exuberance will account for an extra 5-8% lift in effort but I believe it wont be enough. Many teams struggle with a player of Wycliffs power! but not us (NZ) ..Don't think he has the right blend of speed/strength/nous to trouble our loose forwards, though he is probably more powerful than our 3 flankers he he..To be competitive Oz need quick ball hopefully hooper will be able to provide that! though he will need plenty of support from his fellows..Thinking that Gill may have been more useful starting. Suncorp may well be a fortress for OZ against all teams ...except NZ..stats we have won 3 of the last 4 games their & of the 19 games played in QLD the AB's have won 14 Oz 3 & 2 drawn!. Here's to a good game

Posted 08:25 19th October 2012

UBA05 says...

There is simply no way a logical brain can pick an aussie win, if form going into the game and player selection is anything to go by. I also have nz up by 15 at the hooter with Harris to be found out defensively at fullback.

Im my opinion, on a hard surface with dry weather conditions, it will be a lacklustre performance by nz if:

they cant score four tries

the aussies lose by less than 15

Posted 08:07 19th October 2012

Waz4before says...

It's really hard to see the Wallabies winning this one; Lang Park is a really hard place for any visiting team to win at but looking at the injuries and the kiwi's form it's likely to be all one-way traffic .. if ever there was a place for Deans to let go of his pride and recall Cooper it would have been on his home turf in front of his home fans.

I think 15-25 is not an unrealistic expectation but don't be surprised if its much, much closer going in to the final 10 before the Kiwi's kick away, the Wallabies are unlikely to roll-over without a fight..

Posted 07:28 19th October 2012

BDAUSSIE says...

The prediction is pretty spot on IMO. Poor Wallabies just cant catch a break with injuries. At fall strength the Wallabies would probably go close to beating the All Blacks at Suncorp (their fortress), but ridiculously understrength they dont come close.

Deans could be gone this time next week.

Posted 07:13 19th October 2012

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