It is that time of the week again when 'Orrible Punt sits down in the Planet Rugby hot-seat to give you his calls. We start with some Super Rugby.
Remember you can contact Russ with all your comments and questions on Twitter - @rpetty80.
Look out for the Premiership predictions on Friday once all the team line-ups have been released.
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The Chiefs have managed at least 34 points in every match so far and have outscored opponents in the second half each contest, a useful skill considering they've maintained their strong starts from last season too(Stormers match aside).
They've won 12/15 games against the Highlanders by an average score of 28-21 and five of the last six at home by 25-16.
They may be without skipper Clarke, but I am expecting Dave Rennie to once again set up a scheme to frustrate his former Turbos scrum-half Aaron Smith at the breakdown and have taken the 1-12 winning margin at 2.75.
The last time the visitors lost their opening four rounds was 2008 and carrying on from last season, they've now lost six in a row. The trademark abrasiveness at the contact area seems to be lacking this year and the average age of the squad is rocketing up.
If you do think they can turn it around, there's value to be had in backing either of their favourites traits, with a 1-5 margin win (7/9 victories been by that margin) available at 10.0 and to come back from a halftime deficit, a big 13.0.
Looking at try scorers - Poki at 3.5 and Horrell at 3.75 are tempting.
Going back over the last few seasons, Crusaders have won 23/26 home games against all opposition, by an average score of 33-16 and 39/43 games (31 in a row) against South African teams by a rate of 36-19.
Bar that one-point loss to the Hurricanes, they've won by at least 14 points in their last six home games. After this round, they have three away matches and will be without Carter, so having got the season back on track last week, picking up maximum points is surely going to be the cards against the Kings.
The visitors have trailed at halftime in all three matches while the Crusaders have led at the break in their last 10 home games against South African teams by an average of 11 points and in 8/10 home games against all sides, also by a rate of 11 points.
Am therefore very happy to back the hosts -12 on the halftime handicap. The Kings are away for the first time, have a distraction of this 'foreign' player issue, are without Watson and Nell and Cheeky is quoting Winston Churchill!
The -27 handicap for the Crusaders is going to be very popular and whilst not a top price, I am also on Read anytime scorer at 3.5
Comments
three6three6 says...
We did see how badly Wales can play in the first 42 minutes of the 6 Nations. Unfortunately for them, this probably cost Wales a back-to-back Grand Slam. The problems is still a real lack of consistency against quality opposition. Wales having been looking to do what England did against New Zealand (last year) since 1953... without success! The Lions tour should be interesting enough... But it will be intriguing to see those players who are at the top of their games turn in some decent performances.
Posted 11:24 22nd March 2013
melkdave says...
Once again i see Wales making the same mistakes they made in 2012.The fans and supporters think they are world beaters,on the back of defeating a very young and green England ,by a record margin,and becoming 6Ns champions.As ive said else where one good game out of 12 isnt anything to crow about really.They still have to prove themselves against the big 3 SH nations,and regain prestige against Samoa and Argentina who beat them conviningly in the aurtum..Wales are not world beaters just as England arenot .They have the potential to be as do England,and believe or not also Ireland I hope the management this time and the fans ,dont get caught up in their own hype,but build on their recovery from ,what can only be said was a disaster or a year in 2012.Come 2015 i would love to see England and ,Wales as real challangers for BILL.Wales and in paticular the WRU have to be carefull that they build well on this yeas recovery,It remains to be seen if they can,or will get drawn into their own hype again,as like Ireland they have some aging players and others that are still overhyped .
Posted 23:52 21st March 2013
Solitude says...
I would have loved to see your thoughts on the other games too. I hope they are coming.
Posted 19:08 21st March 2013