Almost there: New Zealand
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It will by no means be a stroll to 2012's Rugby Championship trophy for the All Blacks when they take on the Pumas at Estadio Único Ciudad de La Plata.
Granted they are hot favourites to wrap up the title a week ahead of schedule. But as we saw in the reverse, Los Pumas can cause them problems.
What adds further fuel to that outlook - something that's already been highlighted by our prediction man - is that All Blacks coach Steve Hansen criticised Argentina this week for their thwarting tactics against them. What a fillip that is for the hosts, knowing they have him openly worried.
So don't expect them to stray from that style this Saturday, with a forward battle set to be played out while Juan Martin Hernandez and Dan Carter collide. Carter, alongside Aaron Smith, will be looking to impose a quick tempo on proceedings while El Mago and Martin Landajo go for territory. Despite the fact Smith has now paid his dues for breaking a curfew, one feels that going for Piri Weepu over the quicker Smith would have played into Puma hands. Therefore, expect more threats in the backs than previous visitors to Argentina, South Africa, who this week face Australia.
Yes, I hold my hands up to going for Argentina to prevail by two points against the Wallabies on the Gold Coast, but hopefully their performance has created a few more believers.
A boost to their cause is the return of Marcos Ayerza to bench duty, which arguably frees up Rodrigo Roncero to put in another of those 50 minute barnstormers. Ayerza was absent last time out and it came as a double blow in some respects as Roncero played for longer, subsequently thinning out his impact. Such is the boost that we are going for the veteran's battle with Owen Franks as our head-to-head, with both props having solid tournaments.
Ayerza is joined on the bench by Tomas Vallejos in the only changes made by head coach Santiago Phelan for their penultimate outing before they watch the Jaguars (second XV) in their upcoming Americas Rugby Championship, which takes place in Canada. That will be where the Pumas will hope to build up a squad depth for future campaigns, which look exceedingly bright following what has been an impressive debut term with the big boys.
Of course there's a long journey ahead until they can be challenging year-in-year-out with the probable champs. But now that they have the sure footing of the Rugby Championship to begin their ascent up the standings, those Hansen headaches are expected to become a regular occurrence. Hansen won't need the Nurofen just yet though, as it is a measure of these special All Blacks that their 14-game unbeaten run exudes an air of dissatisfaction.
A title with a round to spare might help with that.
Ones to watch:
For Argentina: While the likes of number eight Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe and loosehead Rodrigo Roncero have stood out up front, centre Marcelo Bosch and right wing Gonzalo Camacho are two of the men typifying this Pumas debut season in the Rugby Championship. Bosch has covered well and communicated superbly defensively and his battle with Conrad Smith sees two similar players collide. But it is the threat Camacho poses on the wing that Argentina will hope is prominent in Buenos Aires. Exeter will be proud of their man and want him to bring this form back with him for the Heineken Cup.
For New Zealand: He's baaaaack! New Zealand's maestro is back after missing his side's previous two wins over the Pumas and Boks due to a calf injury and the timing couldn't be better. Whilst Aaron Cruden did an admirable job in Dan Carter's absence, it's clear the world champs have missed their number one pivot, who brings a wealth of experience and is a more composed presence in the number ten jersey. The 30-year-old will start in his 90th Test, as the All Blacks vice-captain closes in on his international century.
Head-to-head: As mentioned in the body of this preview, Rodrigo Roncero against Owen Franks whets the appetite. Two props who are at opposite ends of their careers meet on Saturday in what could provide valuable on-the-job training for the Cantabrian. Roncero has just two games left in his Test career yet his tackle count for each of his four Rugby Championship appearances thus far has him making over ten tackles. Should be good.
Previous results:
2012: New Zealand won 21-5 in Wellington
2011: New Zealand won 33-10 in Auckland (RWC)
2006: New Zealand won 25-19 in Buenos Aires
2004: New Zealand won 41-7 in Hamilton
2001: New Zealand won 24-20 in Buenos Aires
2001: New Zealand won 67-19 in Christchurch
1997: New Zealand won 62-10 in Hamilton
1997: New Zealand won 93-8 in Wellington
1991: New Zealand won 36-6 in Buenos Aires
1991: New Zealand won 28-14 in Buenos Aires
1989: New Zealand won 49-12 in Wellington
Prediction: Oodles of passion with a great deal of entertainment but the special day will not result in a victory for Argentina. New Zealand have too much class wider out - win by 10!
The teams:
Argentina: 15 Lucas Gonzalez Amorosino, 14 Gonzalo Camacho, 13 Marcelo Bosch, 12 Santiago Fernandez, 11 Horacio Agulla, 10 Juan Martin Hernandez, 9 Martin Landajo, 8 Juan Martin Fernandez Lobbe (c), 7 Juan Manuel Leguizamon, 6 Julio Farias Cabello, 5 Patricio Albacete, 4 Manuel Carizza, 3 Juan Figallo, 2 Eusebio Guinazu, 1 Rodrigo Roncero.
Replacements: 16 Agustin Creevy, 17 Marcos Ayerza, 18 Tomas Vallejos, 19 Tomas Leonardi, 20 Nicolas Vergallo, 21 Martin Rodriguez, 22 Juan Imhoff.
New Zealand: 15 Israel Dagg, 14 Cory Jane, 13 Conrad Smith, 12 Ma'a Nonu, 11 Julian Savea, 10 Daniel Carter, 9 Aaron Smith, 8 Kieran Read, 7 Richie McCaw (c), 6 Liam Messam, 5 Sam Whitelock, 4 Luke Romano, 3 Owen Franks, 2 Andrew Hore, 1 Tony Woodcock.
Replacements: 16 Keven Mealamu, 17 Charlie Faumuina, 18 Brodie Retallick, 19 Sam Cane, 20 Piri Weepu, 21 Aaron Cruden, 22 Ben Smith.
Date: Saturday, September 29
Kick-off: 20:10 local (00:10 BST, 23:10 GMT)
Venue: Estadio Único Ciudad de La Plata
Referee: Jaco Peyper (South Africa)
Assistant referees: Craig Joubert (South Africa), Pascal Gauzere (France)
Television match official: Francisco Pastrana
By Adam Kyriacou
Comments
KiwiJoe says...
Looking forward to this game, the interest and expectation, not to mention how serious the All Blacks are taking this game are a credit to the Pumas and make their inclusion a long overdue master stroke.
I don,t expect a fairy tale ending however, but an All Black win, they are obviously deternined to be become great World Champions and the Pumas need to address their main drawback of insufficient strike power against this team.
Once that comes watch out, but I bet the Wannabes or Boks will lose to them before the All Blacks do.
If the reverse is the case today, I.ll be the first to congratulate them.
Posted 13:31 29th September 2012
MadTripa says...
Hi guys, time?s over, today it will be a great day here in La Plata, we will show the wordl that Pumas are going for more, a you?ll understand why nither France nither England wanted Argentina in the Six Nations.
Without doubts AB are the best of the best doesn?t matter the result of this test match, but Argentina has arrived not just to win a match but to win the rugby championship it self not fare away, just because we sword to leave with glory or to death with it, and non of the other have this deep fire in theirs hearts.
Welcome to our place and enjoy it!!!
Camon Pumas
Posted 12:40 29th September 2012
JohnV says...
Can anybody steer me in the right direction to view this and the Aussie game online? .
Thx
Posted 11:19 29th September 2012
JayStarr says...
@ ArmchairGeneral: I did not mean "very few teams in history have ever come close to beating the All Blacks in NZ". If that is what I meant then that is what I would have said. I didn't, because I didn't. I meant that it is a very rare occurrance - in fact, I would go as far as saying it is one of the rarest occurrances in world rugby. Do you disagree?
As for Argentina - I am not patronising them at all. I predicted ahead of the tournament that they would do well, even though many people had their doubts. However, they have even exceeded my expectations - especially by giving the All Blacks a run for their money in their own back yard. For a country that still has amateur structures (even though their top players play in Europe, they came through amateur structures) and not NEARLY the amount of resources enjoyed by those other countries you mentioned, I think their achievements in this tournament from the first whistle - against the three best teams in the world (whether you like it or not) - has been f'n REMARKABLE.
I love Argentina and I think their inclusion into this championship has been the best thing to happen in world rugby in a very long time. In my personal opinion it is the best thing to happen in world rugby since the re-admission of South Africa. It has thrown the cat amongst the pigeons in the best possible way and will probably result in a new world order over the next few years...
Exciting innit!
Posted 10:21 29th September 2012
ArmchairGeneral says...
I'd agree not many teams have beaten ABs. But many teams have been close in the third quarter. Most top 10 teams at some stage, even in NZ. They've all had their hammerings too. No diss respect to ABs: they're tops.
Posted 10:07 29th September 2012
whizz52 says...
Smart money is on the ABs going away...
Posted 05:33 29th September 2012
Scrumpoacher says...
Yes yes they play exciting rugby and all that, but what I mean is that it's not really much of a 'competition' if the result is a foregone conclusion before kick off-that's what's boring...an even, edge of your seat contest with that 'kiwi' exciting brand of rugby-that's what I want to see...Cheers
Posted 00:20 29th September 2012
paulynz says...
It will be a hard, hard match but an ABs win by 10 looks about right if they continue to play the way that they have done in the first four RC games.
But if the ABs finally click as they did in the first and third matches against Ireland it will be a 20 point margin. They haven't brought out their "A" game so far in the RC...
Posted 23:38 28th September 2012
ruckingkiwi says...
ArmchairGeneral, he's right, how many teams have nearly beaten NZ in NZ in recent times? SA have, France have. That's it! Otherwise, Ireland and Australia have come close. Argentina played very well but were quite away off, they never looked like winning that game.
Posted 23:31 28th September 2012
2eyedkiwi says...
No one has picked a draw? If its close to the end of the 3rd quarter....
@Armchair General - spot on mate! I'm sick of the patronising of such a proud rugby team
Posted 20:43 28th September 2012
Patagon says...
ABs vs. Pumas prediction:
How close are the Pumas from beating the ABs?
In pre-match analysis, have they been closer than now?
I think rugby fans around the world acknowledge the Pumas can cause an upset anytime, especially from now. They know that sooner rather than later, the Pumas will be winning matches against these teams.
The question is, will it be this weekend?
History will not help the Pumas. But their game plan execution may. That is how so called major upsets happen, and history is written. Been king, the ABs have suffers them, and been contender the Pumas cause some memorable, against France, Ireland and England. Momentum is everything. I remember the ABs¿ disbelieved and impotence while France turned around the result inWC99 semis (I think it was). The same disbelieve when the Pumas beat France twice in WC2007.
To beat the ABs (and any of the big teams), the Pumas have to lose respect for them, and also be a bit lucky (a very elastic word). So, I hope for and upset but I think the opposite will happen.
Posted 18:56 28th September 2012
7ton says...
propmelsey
Obviously you are hoping for a very poor ref who hasn't a clue then. LOL
Posted 18:55 28th September 2012
ArmchairGeneral says...
@Jaystar: "Argentina was in a position to win that game for three quarters of the match... and there are very, very few teams in the world who can say that against the All Blacks in NZ..." Are you serious? most top 10 countries have been in that position. From memory Oz, Boks, Ireland, England, France, Arg, but probably Wales, Scot. I'm getting fed up of the "wow Argentina are so amazing to be able to challenge the wonderful trinations." The trinations are good, theyre top, but rarely unbeatable by a top 10 team. I wish this patronising treatment of Argentina would stop. I was so happy to see Hensen criticising them as it shows at least the AB squad treat them like the other teams. Like equals. If Oz had come close we'd not be saying "wow good on Oz!". We'd be saying they blew it. Same goes for Argentina.
Posted 18:37 28th September 2012
Dangerous says...
Argentina very quick up on defence. Expect Carter to be under loads of pressure. Predict at least one charge down try to Argentina as Dan try's to get one of his kicks away. If the all blacks are not switched on for the full 80 I predict an upset and then a riot! Strike while the irons hot. And Argentina are smoking like a tasty steak.
Posted 18:14 28th September 2012
makemehappy says...
@Trader2 - Wales have come pretty close in the last 10 years, and Ireland did (admittedly they were hammered either side) could easily have won too. Given the strength of the nations club teams and the number of players available, there isn't much to support your argument I'm afraid.
Posted 16:50 28th September 2012
Kiwikev says...
@ rugby_rockstar
I completely agree with you that having the Argies in this competition is great for all involved!
@ Scrumpoacher
Perspective is everything mate...
Posted 16:43 28th September 2012
fattysock says...
@carlosbolts
There is a difference between "understrengthed" and "B team".
Just because we had SOME frontliners playing doesn't prove anything. I see Scott Hamilton played in the 2006 game... you really think he was ever our top winger?
Posted 16:20 28th September 2012
Trader2 says...
As said prior to the competition the Argies will beat the AB's before Wales, Scotland and Ireland ever will (yes I know Wales did in 1953, just trying to stick with "in living memory") however again it will not be this weekend. I hope it is close and exciting but AB's by 11.
Posted 15:27 28th September 2012
carlosbolts says...
@TERRY_ENGLISH
You call "understrength" a team which in 2006 fielded Dan Carter, Piri Weepu,Ali Williams, Tony Woodcock, Andrew Hore, Jimmy Cowan and Ma'a Nonu ? And in 2001 Howlett, Umaga, Lomu, Mehrtens, Maxwell and Mccaw (though he was very young) all played.
Posted 15:13 28th September 2012
heart_of_oak says...
rugby_rockstar - with you there, though I can't see anything but an NZ victory. But at the start of this competition I said I thought it was going to be good for Argentinian rugby and we shouldn't write argentina off after one game. Loads of people slated me for that saying Argentina were boring and could only play in one way which was basically to try and kill the game up front.
I reckon a strong Argentina is good for the game and hope to see them playing more in Europe too.
One point that no-one ever mentions though is the flying and time zone travel that their inclusion now puts on all teams. It's a 10,000 kilometer flight. To play an international test which is sure to be intense after a flight like that can't be easy.
Posted 15:03 28th September 2012