Back at 7: Sam Warburton
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Sam Warburton will be looking to lift the Triple Crown on Twickenham soil when Wales meet a new-look England XV in the Six Nations this Saturday.
Warren Gatland's charges have unsurprisingly been installed as favourites for this round three meeting, but those odds have slimmed of late. Reasoning for this is largely down to starting shirts handed to four Englishmen, one docking (had to) at centre, the others at lock, nine and a Scarlet taking over from Phil Dowson at eight.
Furthermore, the prospect of playing at a venue where England have lost only once to the Welsh in 23 years also leads to many seeing a tight one.
Had this been two weeks ago then the majority would predict one winner but there is just a smattering of the unknown associated with this English line-up, which of course conversely begs the question of whether this is just another one of those infamous 'false dawns'. We wait, although selection is correct from coach Stuart Lancaster.
Lee Dickson has more than earned his jersey after being the catalyst for the lift in tempo against the Azzurri. Meanwhile, Ben Morgan was strong off the bench and Manu Tuilagi seemingly showed enough against Saracens to warrant his selection. Toby Flood's non-drop-goal might have cost him a start. Flood does do enough to get in on the bench though due to Charlie Hodgson suffering a cut hand.
But this will be the acid test for England after facing the lower-ranked Scotland and Italy thus far. Wales are definitely a different kettle of fish. What the visitors possess is the ability to turn a game when they want to, unlike a few years ago when they seemed more to hope that a game would open up. Today they have a calmness and confidence in their own and each other's game that is great to see, which is why a March 17 finale with France is asterisked.
A second victory at Twickenham since 1988 would keep Wales in contention for that Grand Slam and build on the promise of fourth spot at the 2011 World Cup. While we are on the statistics, here are a few more to turn the cogs upstairs: the countries have met on 122 occasions - England lead the series 56-54, with 12 draws; Wales will secure their 20th Five or Six Nations Championship Triple Crown if they beat England on Saturday; when Wales last defeated England at Twickenham - Warren Gatland's first fixture as head coach - they progressed to claim the 2008 Six Nations Championship title and clinched a Grand Slam.
Meant to be?
It will depend on a few areas, one having been selection. While being a fan of what Hodgson has done since moving to Saracens, adding to his impeccable distributive skills with a sturdier approach, Owen Farrell's shift to fly-half is a positive one for England. Why? Well I feel they would not win an expansive battle with their settled opponents. Furthermore the physicality of a midfield combination of Brad Barritt alongside Tuilagi was needed against messieurs Jamie Roberts and Jonathan Davies - two of the top midfield men in world rugby right now - and with Farrell a solid defender on the inside, expect both sides to struggle to break through impressive defensive walls in the centre-field at Twickenham.
This could well be a battle around the fringes and in the air as Wales would have taken note of Ben Foden's mistakes in Rome and told Rhys Priestland to pepper the Saint early on. Priestland will also utilise those two wings in the shape of George North and Alex Cuthbert, who have so far offered a whole lot more than England's Chris Ashton and David Strettle.
A lot will once again rest on the shoulders of the youthful Farrell though - not just from the tee - as he prepares for his first full Test appearance at Twickenham in a cool manner.
"I've always wanted to work the game out and be a person who guides a team," he said, having this week been compared to a young Jonny Wilkinson by Wales legend Neil Jenkins.
"It's just a step in one position (from inside centre to fly-half). You do have responsibility but you've got some unbelievable players around you, not just here but at Saracens."
However, Wales will be nothing like he and England have faced.
Ones to watch:
For England: The four newcomers of course. Manu Tuilagi will offer something fresh to the Red Rose than they have had over the opening two rounds while Lee Dickson is brought in to help speed things up at the base behind Ben Morgan. England also sacrifice a dollop of weight in their lock department as Tom Palmer goes for Geoff Parling, which is a bold move from Stuart Lancaster. Parling is a clever rugby player and one that has performed strongly for Leicester since coming back from injury, deserving his bench spot and now a start.
For Wales: Saturday heralds the return of the king for Wales as Sam Warburton slips back into his number seven jersey in place of Aaron Shingler. Credit where credit is due, Shingler was superb in stepping up at the eleventh hour against Scotland but he must now settle for a spot on the Scarlets' bench as Warburton assumes the captaincy. In what is a formidable and balanced back-row, Wales will hope for a repeat performance from Dan Lydiate and further back the form of centre Jonathan Davies is also worth keeping an eye on.
Head-to-head: I'm most looking forward to the battle between Dan Cole and Gethin Jenkins. The duo are arguably the British and Irish Lions number three and one if they were to run out against the Wallabies tomorrow (yes, Cian Healy may have something to say about that). Elsewhere and there has yet to be this kind of pressure on Chris Ashton's performance and it has to be said that he can count himself somewhat lucky that Charlie Sharples hasn't remained injury free. His personal battle with fellow wing roamer Alex Cuthbert should be interesting, particularly as the Welshman has found good form.
Recent results:
2011: Wales won 19-9 in Cardiff
2011: England won 23-19 in London
2011: England won 26-19 in Cardiff
2010: England won 30-17 in London
2009: Wales won 23-15 in Cardiff
2008: Wales won 26-19 in London
2007: England won 62-5 in London
2007: Wales won 27-18 in Cardiff
2006: England won 47-13 in London
2005: Wales won 11-9 in Cardiff
2004: England won 31-21 in London
2003: England won 28-17 in Brisbane
2003: England won 43-9 in Cardiff
2003: England won 26-9 in Cardiff
Prediction: Because of ability to dictate games on their own terms, Wales by 6!
The teams:
England: 15 Ben Foden, 14 Chris Ashton, 13 Manusamoa Tuilagi, 12 Brad Barritt, 11 David Strettle, 10 Owen Farrell, 9 Lee Dickson, 8 Ben Morgan, 7 Chris Robshaw (capt), 6 Tom Croft, 5 Geoff Parling, 4 Mouritz Botha, 3 Dan Cole, 2 Dylan Hartley, 1 Alex Corbisiero.
Replacements: 16 Rob Webber, 17 Matt Stevens, 18 Courtney Lawes, 19 Phil Dowson, 20 Ben Youngs, 21 Toby Flood, 22 Mike Brown.
Wales: 15 Leigh Halfpenny, 14 Alex Cuthbert, 13 Jonathan Davies, 12 Jamie Roberts, 11 George North, 10 Rhys Priestland, 9 Mike Phillips, 8 Toby Faletau, 7 Sam Warburton (capt), 6 Dan Lydiate, 5 Ian Evans, 4 Alun-Wyn Jones, 3 Adam Jones, 2 Ken Owens, 1 Gethin Jenkins.
Replacements: 16 Richard Hibbard, 17 Paul James, 18 Ryan Jones, 19 Justin Tipuric, 20 Lloyd Williams, 21 James Hook, 22 Scott Williams.
Date: Saturday, February 18
Venue: Twickenham
Kick-off: 15.00 GMT
Referee: Steve Walsh (Australia)
Assistant referees: Peter Fitzgibbon (Ireland), Pascal Gauzere (France)
By Adam Kyriacou
Comments
Sincero says...
Jenkins and Cole 1 and 3 for the Lions? Ease off whatever you're smoking, lads.
Posted 12:35 25th February 2012
westywales says...
@ABlack and others
just a few points;
Home advantage today being worth 8 points is questionable - half the England XV haven't played an international at Twickenham yet. Only one member of Wales hasn't. Wales have little fear there.
IRB Rankings are absurd at present as Wales are only behind England due to World Cup points being doubled for some inexplicable reason. Hence the bizarre situation of the WC fourth-place finishers ending up ranked 8th at the end of the tournament.
I think you underestimate the skill level of the Welsh backs and perhaps the NH game in general. Yes, it is behind the SH but not as far as you like to think and there are definitely individuals who more than match up. Have you actually been watching?
NZ are not quite the benchmark they are used to being at the moment. World Champions, yes, but they only just scraped it against a poor French side eh?
Anyway, Wales to win by 8 points I think although this is the 6N. Anything can and will happen.
Posted 12:19 25th February 2012
jose_jones says...
@ Ablack,... why does every team have to play the all blacks to see where they stand on progression,.. I think you are overating Wales more than most here,... there are alot of places in the IRB standings between Wales and New Zealand,.. oh and look.... England is one of them.!!! How about that?... Wales are on an upward curve,.. and I'm sorry if that makes you feel left out down there,.. but you're not part of this competition,.. So at least try to be graceful in accepting that,.. because you're coming across like a big brother who isn't getting as much attention as his little sibling.
As for the big fellas,.... They are big fellas,... that was the statement,.. and those are the facts..!!
To the game,.. close I think,... my heart says Wales but previous experience is telling me to get very drunk before the final whistle....!
Posted 11:50 25th February 2012
jontheref says...
atgg77
Wales scored the first try BEFORE the yellow card.
Get you facts right.
Posted 07:42 25th February 2012
ABlack says...
Im picking England to win this game- just. With their home ground and crowd worth 8 points minimum cancelling out Wales more settled and experienced team- just.
Wales is over rated( most of the overrating of their abilities by the media and Sean Edwards after the world cup) but Australia has beaten them twice in recent times , both times reasonably easily. Some of their players have been built up by media as the best in the world at their positions, this is ridiculous when Aussie players in same positions outplayed those players, and until they have played the All Blacks (hasnt happened in 18 months) the media and the players and Welsh coaches themselves can then judge where their comparative playing standards are at.
It seems the media and some rugby ttypes have made a big deal about the Welsh backs size. This is a worthless praise if they are only average players in skill and playing ability, which some of these so-called giants are.
Posted 06:59 25th February 2012
jontheref says...
atg77
"then the ref gave them an extra 7 points to their winning margin by dissallowing Hoggs try."
How is that then?
Scotland scored from the same piece of prssure to get a 7 pointer!
In fact if Hoggs score had been given, Scotland probably would have missed the kick, so shall we call the score 27-11 and agree?
Of course not!
get real, and watch the game!
You were obviously at Mickey D's when i last posted!
Posted 23:49 24th February 2012
Welshy says...
I agree with Kent. Always rated Dawson as a master baiter.
Posted 22:46 24th February 2012
carpelone says...
Not sure that Wales will do the job tomorrow.
England did not create many opportunities for tries, but they did not concede them either.
The changes in the England line-up are not to be underestimated.
Posted 20:41 24th February 2012
atg77 says...
I think Wales are a tad overated. A fortuitous win over an Odriscolless Ireland and a charity event against Scotland hasn't impressed me all that much. Scotland effectively gifted them three tries with those two yellow cards, then the ref gave them an extra 7 points to their winning margin by dissallowing Hoggs try. England have managed to play terribly yet still manage to win. Its only a matter of time before they click, and if they do Wales will be in trouble. Especially with a back three of Ashton, Foden and Strettle. Remember the Welsh have only one win at Twickenham in 23 years... I dont see this changing.... From a non England fan...
Posted 20:40 24th February 2012
Welshy says...
Wales are favourites, they should win convincingly. I will be dissapointed if they don't. This game should be the start of the next stage in their journey to being regarded as a force in world rugby. Rightly they are not looked upon as such at the moment. They are nowhere near the finished article yet and steady progress should be the order of the day. So many young and inexperienced players are starting to gel, but consistency and street savvy tactics have still to be mastered. I make no apology for being confident, but neither do I think the result is a forgone conclusion. I too am excited by the prospect of the new England line up if only because it is giving youth its chance.
Potentialy a fantastic game - Come on boys!!!!
Posted 20:09 24th February 2012
jontheref says...
Great to see reasoned comments, allied with some patriotism (good!), the WUMs must still be at school or in Micket D's!
Really looking forward to it!
C'mon Wales!
Posted 19:10 24th February 2012
SUFTUM99 says...
How can Dan Cole start for the Lions when he doesn't even start for his club? Pretty unproven at this level if you ask me, gives away a fair few penalties.......though he looks fearsome
Posted 16:38 24th February 2012
doyley says...
Really looking forward to this game, Wales deserve their favorites tag but i don't think they've been as dazzling as the media are hyping them to have been, let's not forget the contentious penalty that won the game against the Irish, and the Scots did have a nightmare 15-20 minutes that killed them off. That's not to say they've not been playing quality rugby but I think it'll be closer than a lot of people think. A lot has been made of the Welsh fitness regime too, which seems to be giving them an edge late on in games, I wonder now long it'll be before other nations get wise to it and train the same way, depriving them of their supposed superior fitness? Could get interesting!
Posted 15:55 24th February 2012
quietbrit says...
England are picking the correct team for the future. I doubt it will work flawlessly and even if it does I suspect that Wales have what it takes to close this one out.
I see Wales winning by a lot unless England have sorted out their first up defense - it's very nice to have a decent scramble but far far better to not need it so much...
It should be a decent game to watch...
Posted 13:35 24th February 2012
jamesliveinhope says...
I actually fear for Wales a little.
Listening to a couple of post match interviews after the last game it sounded like this match was already won (read Ireland v England last year). Fine line between confidence and complacency.
Wales have a deserved reputation for playing exciting rugby but the fact remains that the highest ranked side that they have beaten in 12 months is Ireland, and the Scottish result (much as theirs against England) was as much about Scottish inadequacy as it was about Welsh superiority.
@welshmac is spot on - Scotland will tell you, its about points on the board, England will tell you that form is about the last game not the current one.
The Welsh are better than England, but how much?? - They are playing them at Twickenham in a fixture that is regularly about who wants it more rather than any particular rugby ability.
As an Englishman this is the first time I've looked at this fixture for ages without doom and gloom. (a) because I don't expect an England win and no-one does (b) that lack of expectation has toned down a few of my Welsh friends' bragging and (c) because we might win
Posted 12:35 24th February 2012
boyoutofwales says...
what rubbish is this about the best prop forwards? do we have yet another pundit who underrrates the wonder that is Adam Jones? short memories: have you forgotten the Lions? He hasn't gone backwards since -in any sense!
[ask Boris Johnson]
Posted 12:12 24th February 2012
Ham_Bap says...
@nubberuk Flood didn't want to take the kick. He had plenty of opportunities to go for it. Then Murphy took matters into his own hands a led from the front. Great captaincy from Murphy, terrible from Flood. PR were spot on on this one.
Posted 11:17 24th February 2012
melkdave says...
Well balanced article and yes Wales are definate favorites.I think that most England fans are looking this year for oerformances and we arent to fussed if we lose a close had fought game. Although we would be overjoyed if we nick a win against Wales .So far the new blood has risen to the challange and beaten our expectations.Lets not forget that it takes longer to bed an offensive system than defencive and 3-4 weeks together isnt much time together in that regard but im hoping we will start to see something in offense this weekend and another improved performance by England
Posted 10:48 24th February 2012
JamieTheProp says...
15 Leigh Halfpenny 5ft 10in, 13st 10lb
14 Alex Cuthbert 6ft 6in, 16st 5lbs
13 Jonathan Davies 6ft 1in, 16st 3b
12 Jamie Roberts 6ft 4in, 17st 5lb
11 George North 6ft 4in, 16ft 5lb
10 Rhys Priestland 6ft, 13st 9lb
9 Mike Phillips 6ft 3in, 15st 10lb
If ever there was a time for England to play the traditional forwards game it is tomorrow!
Posted 10:41 24th February 2012
welshmac says...
'Successful rugby is not about scoring tries or involving 15 men in fluid, interactive, integrated attacking style. It is about finishing one point ahead on the scoreboard at the end of the match', spirit of 1999.
Let's keep 15 men on the pitch, kick our kicks, make our tackles, win our line-outs and avoid interceptions and chargedowns, and the rest should be easy.
Cymru am byth!
Posted 10:26 24th February 2012